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So, today I was asked by a coworker what I thought about the big events that are supposed to happen in 2012. It took some effort to dredge up the faintest of recollections that there's some astrological predictions about the end of the world and other nifty events based on the Mayan calendar. His claim that we should not reject it out of hand was that other natural events have always corresponded to significant dates in history and the stars often accurately predict the course of human events.
How do otherwise intelligent people continue to fall for this stuff? I mean, I lack extensive scientific knowledge, so when I come across something over my head, I research it. Sometimes that research includes just asking ya'll who are smarter than me and I get soundly put in my place (i.e. the burning saltwater guy). But the point is, I still research it before I start spreading it around.
So, with very few details left in my memory, since I dismissed this particular myth years ago, I tried to explain about the differences in cultural calendars and the difficulty with matching them up, and different mythologies having nothing at all to do with our current culture, etc.
He made some reference to major events that happened on "significant" dates on our Gregorian calendar, and I pointed out that the Asian cultures don't use the same calendar and nothing important happened to them on those dates. I also pointed out all the "signficant" dates where nothing happened at all. I tried to point out that our use of "significant" in numbers is fairly arbitrary, and other cultures, other calendars, etc. all use different numbers. I also tried to reference the fact that humans are very good at seeing patterns, even when there isn't one. The whole phenomenon of remembering a "prediction" when it came true and not remembering the hundreds of other predictions and dreams that never came true, or the events that happened that no one predicted, for instance. The idea of the statistical liklihood of chance allows for events that look like patterns in the small scale, but when examined from farther away (or a longer range of data) show that chance makes it entirely possible to have happened in that manner, as another one.
So I'm referencing a bunch of websites that debunk this particular myth to show him tomorrow at work. Anyone care to chime in?
How do otherwise intelligent people continue to fall for this stuff? I mean, I lack extensive scientific knowledge, so when I come across something over my head, I research it. Sometimes that research includes just asking ya'll who are smarter than me and I get soundly put in my place (i.e. the burning saltwater guy). But the point is, I still research it before I start spreading it around.
So, with very few details left in my memory, since I dismissed this particular myth years ago, I tried to explain about the differences in cultural calendars and the difficulty with matching them up, and different mythologies having nothing at all to do with our current culture, etc.
He made some reference to major events that happened on "significant" dates on our Gregorian calendar, and I pointed out that the Asian cultures don't use the same calendar and nothing important happened to them on those dates. I also pointed out all the "signficant" dates where nothing happened at all. I tried to point out that our use of "significant" in numbers is fairly arbitrary, and other cultures, other calendars, etc. all use different numbers. I also tried to reference the fact that humans are very good at seeing patterns, even when there isn't one. The whole phenomenon of remembering a "prediction" when it came true and not remembering the hundreds of other predictions and dreams that never came true, or the events that happened that no one predicted, for instance. The idea of the statistical liklihood of chance allows for events that look like patterns in the small scale, but when examined from farther away (or a longer range of data) show that chance makes it entirely possible to have happened in that manner, as another one.
So I'm referencing a bunch of websites that debunk this particular myth to show him tomorrow at work. Anyone care to chime in?
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Date: 1/18/08 02:16 pm (UTC)From: